Our Purpose:
Most macroeconomic data on the U.S. economy is what's known as "soft" data: it's predicated on people and businesses responding to voluntary surveys sent out by government agencies. Recipients of these surveys are not required to reply, however, and thus are not punished if they do not respond. Whether it's because of budget constraints, government trust issues, or technology or communication mediums changing, response rates for some of our most important economic data have meaningfully declined over the last decade. Consider the following from a recent Bloomberg article from December 2024 (charts below), or another from famed economist Claudia Sahm in November of 2023:
If fewer people are responding to these surveys, that means the data coming from them is increasingly less useful.
Fortunately for us, there are thousands of publicly traded companies that are required to report certain information to the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) as part of their filing requirements. This information is audited and the management teams who provide it are subject to criminal penalties if it is not accurate. Additionally, metrics are routinely provided by these same companies that help us gain awareness into volumes, price, costs, and other important data as well. And if the economy is ultimately an amalgamation of businesses and workers, the "hard" data coming from these publicly traded firms may actually be of infinitely more value than what's coming from the government.
​
The Stock Market Economist will therefore seek to use this data, as well as "softer" data from the conference calls and company presentations provided to the public by these firms, to help provide a more concrete picture of economic activity in the United States. This includes macroeconomic analysis and modeling on things like GDP and investment, as well as insights into the labor market, price inflation, and many other important economic indicators as well. We'll therefore be doing the same job as other economists then, but we'll just be using completely different input data to form our conclusions: data that isn't subject to voluntary responses.
​
Bottom Line: we're looking to give you a better, clearer snapshot of what's going on with the US economy than anyone else.